Iron ore futures in Singapore fell below $90 a tonne on Thursday for the first time since September 2024, as weak steel demand in China met expectations of more supply from Guinea's new Simandou mine.
At a glance
- Iron ore fell for a third straight session in both Singapore and Dalian.
- China imported 109.82 million tonnes of iron ore in September, 5.6% less than a year earlier.
- China's imports for January-September still rose 4.1%, keeping 2026 on track for a record.
Background
Iron ore is the main raw material for steel, and China buys most of the iron ore shipped by sea. Its price is set on futures markets, mainly the Singapore Exchange (SGX), priced in dollars, and the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), priced in yuan. When Chinese steel mills cut output, iron ore usually falls.
What happened
The benchmark November iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.66% to $89.85 a tonne early on Thursday, Reuters reported. It was the weakest level since September 24, 2024. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded contract dropped 0.82% to 669 yuan ($99.95) a tonne, also a two-year low.
Other steelmaking materials fell too. Coking coal slid 3.67% and coke lost 2.62% in Dalian. In Shanghai, rebar fell 0.59% and hot-rolled coil 0.43%.
Why prices are falling
Demand from Chinese steel mills has softened at a time of year when it usually picks up. Analysts at broker Zhengxin Futures said downstream steel demand weakened during the peak season. At the same time, supply from the Simandou project in Guinea is expected to ramp up, adding a large new source of supply.
Falling freight rates add to the pressure, because cheaper shipping lowers the delivered cost of ore. Zhengxin said these factors point to possible further downside for futures prices. Chinese customs data show September imports fell 5.6% from a year earlier to 109.82 million tonnes.
What it means
China is still buying heavily overall. Its iron ore imports in January-September rose 4.1% to 954.97 million tonnes, keeping annual imports on track for a record. China has also been sending more steel abroad: steel exports rose 3.3% from August to 10.49 million tonnes in September, the China Iron and Steel Association said.
For India, cheaper ore is mixed news. Mills that buy ore benefit from lower raw material costs. Miners that export are squeezed: India's iron ore exports had already fallen to a near four-year low in September as China bought less.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Weak Chinese steel demand and new supply from Simandou are pushing prices to two-year lows. Analysts see room for further declines.
What to watch
- Chinese steel output and demand during the rest of the autumn construction season.
- Shipments from Simandou as the Guinea project ramps up.
- Whether Singapore futures hold near $90 or fall further.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2024-09-24: Singapore and Dalian iron ore futures were last at these levels.
- 2026-10-15: Singapore iron ore futures fall to $89.85 a tonne, below $90 for the first time since 2024.
Demand Drivers
Downstream steel demand in China weakened in the peak autumn season, cutting mills' need for ore.
Supply Drivers
Simandou's ramp-up in Guinea is expected to add significant new supply to the seaborne market.
Global Consumption
China's January-September imports still rose 4.1%, so overall buying remains near record levels.
What could lift prices
- China's imports are on track for a record year despite weaker September buying.
- Rising Chinese steel exports keep mills producing even as home demand softens.
What could weigh on prices
- September imports fell 5.6% from a year earlier.
- Falling freight rates lower the delivered cost of ore, adding downward pressure.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | Its weakening steel demand is the main reason ore prices are falling. |
| Guinea | Medium | New supply from the Simandou project is adding to market pressure. |
| India | Medium | Steel mills gain from cheaper ore, while exporters face weaker Chinese demand. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore Mining | Negative | Miners earn less per tonne with prices at two-year lows. |
| Steel Manufacturing | Positive | Steelmakers pay less for their main raw material. |
Who gains, who loses
- Steelmakers that import ore: Their main input cost has dropped to a two-year low.
- Iron ore exporters: Lower prices and weaker Chinese buying cut their revenue.
Other ways this could play out
- If Chinese steel demand recovers before winter, prices could rebound above $90.
- If Simandou shipments grow faster than expected, prices could fall further.
Price risks
- Chinese stimulus aimed at construction could lift steel demand and ore prices.
- Supply disruptions in Australia or Brazil could tighten the market quickly.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
China
India