Delegates at the London Bullion Market Association's annual conference expect gold to trade around $5,013 an ounce a year from now, about 20% above current levels. They are even more bullish on silver, forecasting about $94.70, a gain of more than 54%.
At a glance
- Last year's delegates expected gold at about $4,980 by now, a forecast that missed the mark.
- Silver is already above the $59.10 that delegates forecast at the 2025 conference.
- In UBS Asset Management's latest survey, 65% of reserve managers said diversification is their main reason for holding gold.
Background
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) holds an annual conference for the precious metals trade, this year in Sorrento, Italy. At each conference, delegates from banks, refiners, traders and central banks forecast where prices will be in 12 months. The survey reflects industry sentiment rather than a formal price model.
What delegates expect
Delegates at the 2026 LBMA Global Precious Metals Conference see gold trading around $5,013.30 an ounce by this time next year. That is roughly 20% above spot gold at $4,163.30 when the survey results were reported.
They are more bullish on silver, forecasting $94.70 an ounce in 12 months, more than 54% above spot at $61.23. Silver is already above the $59.10 that delegates predicted at last year's conference, despite a sharp fall from this year's highs.
Why the industry stays bullish
Gold has struggled this year as the US-Iran war drove oil prices higher, fuelled inflation and pushed long-dated bond yields to their highest in roughly 20 years. Speakers argued that rising government debt is also making bonds look riskier as a safe haven.
"I think, in a way, gold is sending us a message that maybe the global debt is reaching an inflection point where the supply of paper may probably overwhelm the demand," said Vikram Dhawan, head of commodities at Nippon India Mutual Fund. Central bank demand was another theme, with 65% of reserve managers in a UBS Asset Management survey naming diversification as their main reason for holding gold.
A note of caution
Last year's forecast missed. At the 2025 conference, delegates expected gold at about $4,980 an ounce, well above where it trades today.
For silver, participants said industrial demand remains healthy even as solar makers use less of it, with artificial intelligence infrastructure and electric vehicles expected to support demand. Dealers also reported periods earlier this year when tight inventories and strong buying made it hard to meet physical demand.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. The survey shows strong long-term industry conviction in gold and silver. It reflects sentiment rather than new supply or demand, and last year's forecast overshot.
What to watch
- Whether bond yields ease from 20-year highs, the main headwind delegates cited.
- Central bank gold purchase data in the coming months.
- Silver industrial demand as solar thrifting continues.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-23.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-06: LBMA conference delegate survey results are reported.
Demand Drivers
AI infrastructure and electric vehicles are expected to support silver demand.
Interest Rates
Long-dated bond yields at their highest in about 20 years are the main near-term headwind.
Central Banks
65% of reserve managers in a UBS survey cite diversification as their main reason for holding gold.
What could lift prices
- Industry delegates see gold up about 20% and silver up more than 54% in a year.
- Central banks keep diversifying into gold.
What could weigh on prices
- Last year's gold forecast overshot actual prices.
- Bond yields at about 20-year highs raise the cost of holding gold.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | Low | The survey reflects sentiment across London's bullion market. |
| India | Low | Indian fund managers at the conference see gold as a hedge against rising global debt. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Bullion Trading | Positive | Industry sentiment remains bullish despite this year's fall. |
Who gains, who loses
- Long-term gold and silver holders: The industry expects prices to recover strongly over the next year.
- Investors betting on further falls: Industry sentiment points to recovery, not a new downtrend.
Other ways this could play out
- If bond yields fall, gold could move toward the delegates' $5,013 forecast.
- If yields stay high, the forecast could overshoot again, as last year's did.
Price risks
- Higher-for-longer interest rates would keep pressure on gold.
- Faster thrifting in solar could weigh on silver demand.
Historical comparison
- 2025 LBMA conference: Delegates forecast gold at about $4,980 and silver at $59.10 for a year later.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United Kingdom
India