Gold fell ₹1,400 to ₹1,49,050 per 10 grams on the MCX on Monday, even as international prices edged up. Silver rose ₹1,025 to ₹2,26,902 per kilogram as weak US jobs data cut the odds of an October Fed rate hike.
At a glance
- Indian commodity markets were shut on Friday for Gandhi Jayanti, the day international gold failed to hold $4,200.
- Traders now see a 22% chance of an October Fed rate hike, down from 64% a week earlier.
- Analysts see MCX gold support at ₹1,47,700 and say it needs to clear ₹1,52,000 to gain strength.
Background
The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) is India's main commodity futures exchange, and its gold and silver contracts are the benchmark for domestic bullion prices. MCX prices broadly follow international prices converted into rupees, plus import duty. When Indian markets close for a holiday, MCX can open with a gap the next day to reflect what happened abroad.
What happened
December gold futures on the MCX fell ₹1,400 to ₹1,49,050 per 10 grams in early trade on Monday. December silver rose ₹1,025 to ₹2,26,902 per kilogram. By midday, gold was still down ₹1,020, or nearly 1%, at ₹1,49,370.
Overseas, the picture was firmer. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,158.17 an ounce in early Asian trade, and spot silver gained 1.7% to $61.40.
Why gold and silver split
Indian commodity markets were closed on Friday for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti. That day, international gold briefly crossed $4,200 after weak US jobs data, then fell back to end the week down 3.7% on Comex at $4,162.30. Monday was the first chance for MCX gold to reflect that slide.
Silver had already fallen harder last week and bounced more on Monday. Weak hiring data cut the chance of an October Fed rate hike to 22% from 64% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though a December hike is still priced at 87%. The dollar index near an 18-month high of 102.37 is limiting gold's recovery, said Kaveri More of Choice Broking.
What it means for India
Gold futures are now below ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams after falling 2% last week. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart sees support for MCX gold at ₹1,47,700 and for silver at ₹2,18,800. He said gold would need to cross and hold above ₹1,52,000 to gain strength, and silver above ₹2,31,000.
Domestic traders also face a busy week. The Reserve Bank of India announces its policy decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point rate hike is expected.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. Fading odds of an October Fed hike support bullion, but a strong dollar and an expected December hike cap the upside. Monday's MCX gold fall mostly reflects Friday's global move.
What to watch
- The Reserve Bank of India's policy decision on Wednesday.
- Whether MCX gold holds its ₹1,47,700 support level.
- Fed minutes and US data that could change the odds of a December rate hike.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-24.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-02: Indian markets close for Gandhi Jayanti; international gold fails at $4,200 after weak US jobs data.
- 2026-10-05: MCX gold falls ₹1,400 while silver rises ₹1,025 as Indian trading resumes.
Interest Rates
Odds of an October Fed hike fell to 22%, but a December hike is still priced at 87%.
Central Banks
The RBI announces its policy decision on Wednesday, with a 25-basis-point hike expected.
Currency Impact
The dollar index near an 18-month high of 102.37 is capping gold.
What could lift prices
- Lower odds of an October Fed hike support non-yielding metals.
- Silver rose 1.7% overseas, showing buyers returning after last week's fall.
What could weigh on prices
- Markets still price an 87% chance of a December Fed hike.
- A dollar index near an 18-month high limits gold's recovery.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | MCX gold fell about 1% on reopening while silver rose. |
| United States | Medium | US jobs data and Fed rate expectations are driving bullion prices. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Jewellery | Positive | Gold futures below ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams make jewellery slightly cheaper. |
| Silver Jewellery & Silverware | Negative | Higher silver prices raise costs for silverware makers. |
Who gains, who loses
- Gold jewellery buyers: Domestic gold prices are lower than at the end of last week.
- Holders of MCX gold futures: December gold fell about 1% on Monday after a 2% fall last week.
Other ways this could play out
- If gold clears ₹1,52,000 on MCX, analysts see room for a stronger recovery.
- If it breaks below ₹1,47,700, last week's slide could extend.
Price risks
- A surprise RBI decision could move the rupee and domestic bullion prices.
- Escalation in US-Iran tensions could revive safe-haven buying.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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