US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says a new 'Milwaukee Framework' will push countries to coordinate their defences against excess steel capacity. Global capacity exceeded demand by 640 million tonnes last year, and China's exports hit a record.
At a glance
- The framework will be released at a meeting of G20 trade ministers this week, Greer said.
- It is likely to encourage countries to raise trade barriers against steel from nations with heavy excess capacity, such as China.
- Global excess steel capacity rose to 640 million tonnes in 2025, the OECD estimates.
Background
Excess capacity means the world can make far more steel than it uses. The surplus often ends up exported cheaply, undercutting steelmakers elsewhere. The Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity brings steel-producing countries together to tackle the problem, and it met in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on September 30.
What happened
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that a new framework for coordinated action against excess steel capacity will be released at a G20 trade ministers' meeting this week. He spoke in Milwaukee after a meeting of the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity.
The so-called Milwaukee Framework is likely to encourage countries to raise trade barriers against steel from countries with heavy excess capacity, such as China. "Every country will do what they think is appropriate. We want to coordinate those measures," Greer said.
Why the US wants joint action
The US has already put up high barriers of its own and wants others to follow. Greer said the US has taken strong measures and that it probably makes sense for other countries to do the same.
The scale of the surplus is large. Global excess capacity rose to 640 million tonnes in 2025, according to the OECD, more than the total steel output of OECD countries. China's steel exports hit a record 131 million tonnes last year, nearly double the level of three years earlier.
What it means for India
India sits on both sides of the issue. It is among the places where most new capacity is being built, along with Southeast Asia and the Middle East, the OECD says. It is also fighting cheap imports itself, and its draft steel policy plans safeguard and anti-dumping duties.
A coordinated push against excess capacity could help Indian mills compete with cheap Chinese steel at home. It could also bring closer scrutiny of India's own rapid expansion.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. More trade barriers would shift where steel is sold rather than cut how much iron ore mills use. The framework's effect depends on how many countries act on it.
What to watch
- The text of the Milwaukee Framework when G20 trade ministers release it this week.
- Which countries sign on, and whether China responds.
- New steel trade measures from the EU, India and other large importers.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-30: The Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity meets in Milwaukee, and Greer announces the Milwaukee Framework.
Supply Drivers
Global excess capacity reached 640 million tonnes in 2025, and China's exports hit a record 131 million tonnes.
Trade Tariffs
The framework is likely to encourage countries to raise trade barriers against steel from nations with heavy excess capacity.
What could lift prices
- Coordinated action could eventually slow capacity growth that keeps steel prices low.
- Mills outside China could win back market share at home, supporting their ore purchases.
What could weigh on prices
- Trade barriers do not reduce China's steel output, which drives most iron ore demand.
- Tariff disputes could slow global trade and weigh on steel demand.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | Its record 131 million tonnes of steel exports are the main target of coordinated barriers. |
| United States | Medium | Washington is leading the push for other countries to match its own steel measures. |
| India | Medium | India faces cheap imports but is also among the countries adding the most capacity. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Steel | Positive | Mills in importing countries would face less competition from cheap surplus steel. |
Who gains, who loses
- Steelmakers in import-heavy countries: Coordinated barriers would shield them from low-priced surplus steel.
- Chinese steel exporters: More countries could raise barriers against their shipments.
- Steel-using manufacturers: Import barriers tend to raise the price they pay for steel.
Other ways this could play out
- If most G20 members sign on, coordinated barriers could redirect surplus steel away from their markets.
- If key countries hold back, the framework could stay largely symbolic.
Price risks
- Retaliation from China could widen the dispute beyond steel.
- Weak global steel demand matters more to iron ore than trade rules.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
China
India