French bank Natixis now expects gold to end the year around $4,100 an ounce, just weeks after it raised its target to $5,000. Rising oil prices and the risk of more US rate hikes explain the turn.
At a glance
- Natixis's base case puts gold near $4,100 by the end of 2026, recovering to about $4,750 by the end of 2027.
- In its worst case, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push gold down to $3,500.
- If oil prices collapse and the Fed changes course, the bank sees gold rising above $5,250.
Background
Banks publish gold price forecasts that investors and jewellers use as a rough guide, and they revise them as conditions change. Gold pays no interest, so it tends to struggle when interest rates rise. This year, oil has become the key link: dearer crude lifts inflation, which pushes the US Federal Reserve towards more rate hikes.
What Natixis expects
Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis, now sees gold at about $4,100 an ounce by the end of the year. His base case assumes the Federal Reserve considers another rate hike in December. Gold would then recover to around $4,750 by the end of 2027 once rates hold steady.
The call is a sharp reversal. In late August, Dahdah raised his year-end target to $5,000. Since then, gold has slid to an eight-week low, although it gained 1.6% on Tuesday as oil prices eased.
Why the outlook changed
Oil is doing most of the work. Gold has again started moving in the opposite direction to crude since late August, and its link to Treasury yields has returned. Higher oil feeds inflation fears, which raise the odds of more Fed hikes and make gold, which pays no interest, less attractive. Dahdah sees the US dollar index as the most stable driver of all.
Buying has not disappeared. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds are still rising despite the price fall. "Some investors are buying the dip (ETFs), but structural demand is unable to offset the rates-driven repricing," Dahdah wrote.
The other two paths
In the bearish scenario, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz escalates the Middle East conflict. Oil surges, inflation sticks and rates stay high. Central banks could even turn from buyers into net sellers of gold, sending the price down to $3,500.
In the bullish scenario, conditions around Hormuz return to normal and oil prices collapse. Inflation falls fast enough for the Fed to stop tightening, and gold climbs above $5,250. For Indian buyers, the rupee price would follow whichever path global gold takes.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Natixis's base case points lower into year-end as oil and rate-hike bets weigh on gold. Its own bull case shows how quickly that could flip if oil falls.
What to watch
- Oil prices and any change in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- US inflation data and signals on whether the Fed will hike again in December.
- Whether central banks keep buying gold or start to slow purchases.
For information only, not investment advice.
Gold price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-08-25: Natixis raises its year-end gold target to $5,000 an ounce.
- 2026-09-29: Natixis lays out a $4,100 base case, with $3,500 and $5,250 as its bear and bull scenarios.
Interest Rates
Natixis's base case assumes the Fed considers another hike in December, keeping pressure on non-yielding gold.
Central Banks
Higher oil and a strong dollar could push central banks to put inflation-fighting ahead of buying gold.
Geopolitical Risks
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the trigger for the bank's $3,500 bear case.
What could lift prices
- Gold ETF holdings are rising even as prices fall, a sign of dip buying.
- A drop in oil prices would weaken the case for more Fed hikes.
What could weigh on prices
- Oil-driven inflation fears keep more Fed hikes on the table.
- Central banks could slow or reverse gold purchases in the bank's worst case.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | Fed rate decisions are the main channel through which oil is hitting gold. |
| India | Medium | Rupee gold prices would follow the global path Natixis describes. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Gold Mining | Negative | A lower year-end price forecast points to weaker margins for gold miners. |
| Jewellery | Positive | Lower gold prices would make jewellery cheaper for buyers. |
Who gains, who loses
- Jewellery buyers: They would pay less if gold falls towards $4,100 as Natixis expects.
- Investors who bought near the highs: A move to $4,100 would deepen their losses from the recent peak.
Other ways this could play out
- If the Strait of Hormuz closes, Natixis sees gold falling as low as $3,500.
- If oil prices collapse and the Fed pivots, Natixis sees gold above $5,250.
Price risks
- A quick diplomatic breakthrough on Hormuz would undercut the bearish base case.
- Continued ETF buying could put a firmer floor under prices than Natixis expects.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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