Three years after China curbed gallium and germanium exports, prices remain 9-10 times 2023 levels. New Western projects in Greece, Canada and the US still leave supply gaps of hundreds of tonnes.
At a glance
- Prices for gallium and germanium remain 9 to 10 times their 2023 levels, three years after China first imposed export controls on the two niche metals used in chipmaking, defense and clean-energy manufacturing.
- China supplied an estimated 98.9% of the world's primary gallium and 68.6% of its germanium in 2025, according to consultancy Project Blue -- dominance built on refining capacity, not raw-ore reserves.
- S&P Global projects a roughly 678-tonne gallium supply gap and a 177-tonne germanium gap by the end of 2026, even after accounting for new non-Chinese production.
- Greece's METLEN Energy & Metals is targeting 50 tonnes a year of gallium by 2028 -- enough to cover EU demand on its own, though customer interest already exceeds that volume several times over.
What happened
Three years after China first imposed export controls on gallium and germanium in 2023, prices for the two niche metals remain stuck at 9 to 10 times their pre-curb levels, and new non-Chinese supply still falls well short of closing the gap. Consultancy Project Blue estimates China supplied 98.9% of the world's primary gallium and 68.6% of its germanium in 2025 -- leverage Beijing built through its refining dominance rather than its share of raw ore. S&P Global projects ex-China gallium supply capacity will reach just 20 tonnes by the end of 2026, against a roughly 678-tonne shortfall versus demand, while non-Chinese germanium production of about 31 tonnes leaves a 177-tonne gap. Western industries dependent on the two metals -- chipmakers, infrared-optics and thermal-imaging manufacturers, and defense contractors building fighter jets and radar systems -- have spent three years stockpiling, hunting substitutes and funding new mines and refineries, but the scale of what's been announced still lags the shortfall. Greece's METLEN Energy & Metals is aiming for gallium output of 50 tonnes a year by 2028 -- enough to cover the European Union's needs, though customer demand already exceeds that target several times over -- while new germanium projects in Canada, South Korea and the United States are expected to lift ex-China refining capacity to just 126 tonnes by 2030, covering only about 48% of projected ex-China demand even if every project reaches full scale.
The details
China's leverage over gallium and germanium was never about how much ore it controls -- it's about how much of the world's refining runs through Chinese plants. When Beijing introduced licensing requirements on the two metals in 2023, later widening the restrictions to cover more critical minerals, it was squeezing a chokepoint few other countries had bothered to build capacity around. Consultancy Project Blue puts China's 2025 share of global primary gallium supply at 98.9% and its share of germanium at 68.6%, a concentration that lets Chinese export-licensing decisions set prices for buyers who have almost nowhere else to turn. Three years on, that's exactly what has happened: spot prices for both metals are running at 9 to 10 times their 2023 levels, with germanium around $10,500 a kilogram and gallium near $2,650 a kilogram in mid-2026.
The scale of the resulting shortfall is what makes this a multi-year problem rather than a one-off price spike. S&P Global expects total ex-China gallium supply capacity to reach only 20 tonnes by the end of 2026, against demand that leaves a gap of roughly 678 tonnes. Germanium's numbers point the same way: non-Chinese production of about 31 tonnes runs 177 tonnes short of what buyers outside China need. Closing gaps that size means building refining capacity from close to zero, not just mining more ore -- gallium is typically recovered as a byproduct of bauxite and zinc processing, and germanium from zinc-ore tailings and coal fly ash, so a new supply source needs both the right feedstock and purpose-built separation infrastructure, not simply a new mine.
For the manufacturers who actually consume these metals, the past three years have meant redesigning around a shortage rather than waiting it out. Edmund Optics, a US precision-optics maker whose products depend on germanium's specific infrared transparency, says there is no drop-in replacement for the material -- engineers can substitute zinc selenide, zinc sulfide or chalcogenide glass in some lens designs, but each swap means re-engineering the optical system, not a like-for-like part change. Lattice Materials, which custom-grows germanium crystals in Bozeman, Montana for infrared optics and defense applications, doesn't expect the squeeze to ease on its own: company president Travis Wood expects prices to at least hold their current highs, if not keep climbing. Belgium's Umicore has taken a different route, partnering with STL -- a unit of the Congolese state miner Gecamines -- to recover more germanium from mining waste in the Democratic Republic of Congo, effectively mining a metal that has already been dug up once.
New production is coming, but the scale mismatch with demand is stark. METLEN Energy & Metals, the Greek industrial group, has begun pilot-scale gallium output and is targeting 50 tonnes a year by 2028 -- a volume the company says would be enough to cover all of the European Union's needs, even though the customer interest it is already fielding exceeds that target several times over. On germanium, Teck Resources has struck a cooperation agreement to evaluate whether germanium-bearing tailings from Titan Mining Corporation's Empire State Mines in New York could feed Teck's Trail refining and smelting complex in British Columbia -- one of several projects, alongside new capacity in South Korea, expected to lift ex-China germanium refining capacity to just 126 tonnes by 2030. Even if every announced project hits its target on schedule, that would cover only about 48% of projected ex-China demand.
That gap between announced supply and actual need is why analysts stay cautious about how far diversification can realistically go. Argus senior analyst Cristina Belda says the export controls have been a real wake-up call that has pushed companies toward recycling and alternative suppliers, not just toward China's rivals. Project Blue founder Jack Bedder puts a number on the ceiling: a material reduction in Western dependence on China for these metals is achievable within five years, he says, but eliminating that dependence entirely is a different, far less realistic proposition.
Why it matters
Gallium and germanium sit underneath products most people never think of as metal-dependent -- fiber-optic equipment, radar systems, LED lighting, satellite solar cells -- which is exactly why a three-year-old price shock that never fully unwound matters beyond the specialty-metals trade press. For India, which imports the overwhelming majority of the refined gallium and germanium its own electronics and defense manufacturing sectors need, the persistence of this squeeze previews what happens when a single country controls a chokepoint further down a supply chain than the mine itself: even well-funded new projects in Greece, Canada and the US are running years behind the point where they would meaningfully move the price -- a timeline any importer of these materials has to plan around rather than wait out.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. The roughly 678-tonne gallium and 177-tonne germanium supply gaps projected through 2026, and the fact that even the most advanced announced Western projects would only partially close them by 2030, point toward prices holding at or above their current 9-to-10-times-2023 levels rather than easing. Confidence is moderated because new non-Chinese capacity is genuinely being built, and a faster-than-expected ramp-up or a shift in Chinese export policy could change the trajectory.
What to watch
- Whether METLEN Energy & Metals' gallium output reaches its targeted 50 tonnes a year on schedule by 2028
- Progress on Teck Resources' cooperation agreement with Titan Mining Corporation to evaluate germanium feedstock from the Empire State Mines tailings
- Any further tightening or easing of China's gallium and germanium export-licensing rules since their 2023 introduction
- The pace at which the roughly 678-tonne gallium and 177-tonne germanium supply gaps projected for 2026 narrow as new non-Chinese capacity comes online
For information only, not investment advice.
Gallium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2023-01-01: China introduces export-licensing controls on gallium and germanium, later widened to cover additional critical minerals.
- 2026-04-01: The US and Australia jointly pledge more than $3.5 billion for critical-minerals projects.
- 2026-07-07: Titan Mining Corporation confirms district-wide germanium enrichment at its Empire State Mines in New York as part of its critical-minerals evaluation.
- 2026-09-18: Reuters reports gallium and germanium prices remain 9 to 10 times their 2023 levels, with new Western supply still projected to fall well short of closing the gap.
Demand Drivers
Gallium demand is projected to grow roughly 12% a year through 2030 from about 1,000 tonnes in 2025, driven by chipmaking, LEDs and clean-energy applications; germanium demand is projected to grow about 3.3% a year from roughly 343 tonnes in 2025, driven by infrared optics, fiber optics and defense uses.
Supply Drivers
China supplied an estimated 98.9% of global primary gallium and 68.6% of germanium in 2025 (Project Blue), a concentration built on refining capacity rather than ore reserves; new Western supply -- led by METLEN's targeted 50 tonnes a year of gallium by 2028 and a combined 126 tonnes a year of ex-China germanium refining capacity by 2030 -- still falls well short of closing the roughly 678-tonne gallium and 177-tonne germanium supply gaps projected for 2026.
Government Policies
China's 2023 export-licensing controls on gallium and germanium are the direct cause of the current supply squeeze; in response, the US and Australia jointly pledged more than $3.5 billion for critical-minerals projects in April 2026, part of the government backing behind new Western gallium and germanium capacity.
Geopolitical Risks
China's export licensing on gallium and germanium, in place since 2023 and later widened to cover more critical minerals, gives Beijing direct leverage over supply chains feeding Western chipmaking, defense and clean-energy manufacturing, with no near-term alternative source able to close the resulting supply gap.
Refinery Output
Gallium and germanium are both recovered as byproducts of other metals' processing -- gallium from bauxite and zinc refining, germanium from zinc-ore tailings and coal fly ash -- meaning new supply requires purpose-built separation capacity, not just new mining. Ex-China refining capacity is projected to reach only 20 tonnes for gallium by end-2026 and 126 tonnes for germanium by 2030.
What could lift prices
- The roughly 678-tonne gallium and 177-tonne germanium supply gaps projected for 2026 dwarf the new capacity currently under construction, keeping the structural scarcity behind the three-year price run intact.
- Lattice Materials president Travis Wood expects prices to at least hold their current highs, if not continue rising, given no near-term loosening in supply.
- Even the most advanced new projects -- METLEN's 50-tonne-a-year gallium target and a combined 126 tonnes a year of ex-China germanium capacity by 2030 -- would still leave demand only partially covered, meaning scarcity persists well past 2026.
What could weigh on prices
- Recycling initiatives, including Umicore's partnership with Gecamines' STL unit in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are recovering germanium from existing mining waste rather than waiting on new mines.
- Metal substitution -- indium phosphide replacing gallium arsenide, zinc selenide or chalcogenide glass replacing germanium in some optical designs -- is reducing demand growth for the scarcest forms of both metals in specific applications.
- Government-backed projects, including the more than $3.5 billion the US and Australia jointly pledged for critical-minerals projects in April 2026, are accelerating new non-Chinese capacity faster than market forces alone would.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| China | High | China's export-licensing controls on gallium and germanium, introduced in 2023, are the direct cause of the three-year price squeeze and give it de facto pricing power over both metals through its dominant refining capacity. |
| United States | High | US companies including Edmund Optics, Lattice Materials and Titan Mining Corporation sit on the front line of the shortage, either as consumers redesigning around scarce germanium or as prospective new domestic suppliers. |
| Greece | Medium | METLEN Energy & Metals' gallium project is one of the most advanced new non-Chinese production efforts announced so far. |
| Canada | Medium | Teck Resources' Trail smelting and refining complex in British Columbia is a candidate destination for new germanium feedstock as part of a broader push to build non-Chinese refining capacity. |
| Democratic Republic of Congo | Low | Umicore's partnership with Gecamines unit STL to recover germanium from Congolese mining waste is one of the few non-Chinese germanium recovery routes already in operation. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | Negative | Chipmakers reliant on gallium arsenide and germanium substrates face persistently high input costs -- 9 to 10 times 2023 levels -- with new non-Chinese supply still years away from closing the gap. |
| Aerospace & Defence | Negative | Defense contractors building fighter jets, tanks and radar systems depend on germanium-based infrared optics and gallium-based semiconductors with limited substitutes, exposing them to the same supply squeeze as commercial buyers. |
Who gains, who loses
- Non-Chinese gallium and germanium producers (METLEN Energy & Metals, Teck Resources): New production capacity commands a scarcity premium while China's export licensing keeps the global market short, and demand from customers already exceeds some of the announced project targets.
- Western chipmakers, defense contractors and optics manufacturers: Buyers like Edmund Optics face persistently high input costs -- 9 to 10 times 2023 levels -- with no drop-in substitute for germanium's specific optical properties and new non-Chinese supply still years from closing the gap.
Other ways this could play out
- If METLEN, Teck Resources' evaluation with Titan Mining Corporation, and the other announced projects all reach their targeted output on schedule, ex-China gallium and germanium supply could meaningfully narrow the current gap by 2030, even without fully closing it.
- If China tightens export licensing further, or any of the announced Western projects slip on the permitting and financing delays common to new refining capacity, the 9-to-10-times price premium could persist well beyond 2028 rather than easing as new supply arrives.
Price risks
- Further Chinese export-licensing restrictions could widen the existing supply gap and push prices past their current 9-to-10-times-2023 range.
- Delays in the announced Western projects -- common to new refining capacity given permitting and financing timelines -- could keep ex-China supply below the levels S&P Global and other trackers currently project.
Historical comparison
- 2023 vs. 2026 gallium and germanium prices: Spot prices for both metals are still running at 9 to 10 times their 2023 levels three years after China's export-licensing curbs took effect, with germanium near $10,500/kg and gallium near $2,650/kg in mid-2026 -- showing how little the price shock has unwound even as new Western supply gets built.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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