India's state-run miner NMDC has put its planned move into nickel on hold, partly because Indonesia has oversupplied the market, two company officials told Reuters. NMDC also failed to get a meeting with Russia's Nornickel despite repeated invitations.
At a glance
- Indonesia accounts for more than 60% of global nickel output.
- India classed nickel as a critical mineral in 2023 and relies mainly on imports.
- NMDC had been exploring critical-mineral acquisitions in Africa, Australia and South America.
Background
NMDC is India's state-run iron ore miner, and it has been looking at overseas critical minerals to diversify. Nickel is used in stainless steel and in electric vehicle batteries. Indonesia's rapid expansion of low-cost nickel output has pushed the market from expected shortage into surplus.
What happened
NMDC has put its planned foray into nickel on hold, two company officials with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. "Presently, we have kept the nickel portfolio on hold given that Indonesia is oversupplied," the first official said. NMDC did not respond to a request for comment.
Reuters had earlier reported that NMDC and the Steel Authority of India were looking at boosting nickel supplies from Russia. NMDC failed to secure a meeting with Russia's Nornickel despite repeated invitations, the official said. Nornickel declined to comment.
Why the market turned
Indonesia produces more than 60% of the world's nickel. The International Nickel Study Group said last week that the market will end 2026 in a slight surplus, reversing a deficit forecast made six months earlier, with the oversupply widening next year.
Indonesia has cut mining quotas this year, tightened environmental controls and adjusted ore pricing to rein in the sector. Even so, a surplus makes new mines and acquisitions harder to justify.
What it means for India
India classified nickel as a critical mineral in 2023 and relies mainly on imports, from China, Japan, Norway and the United States among others. It is finalising a policy with incentives to process the metal at home. NMDC's pause shows how a global glut can slow India's push to own overseas supply, even as the country seeks secure access for steel and battery makers. NMDC has also been evaluating overseas coking coal assets.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. A state buyer stepping back is a sign that oversupply is deterring investment. It reflects existing weakness more than it adds new pressure.
What to watch
- India's final policy on incentives for nickel processing.
- Whether NMDC revives its nickel plans if Indonesia's supply curbs tighten the market.
For information only, not investment advice.
Nickel price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-19: Reuters reports that NMDC has put its nickel plans on hold.
Supply Drivers
Indonesia supplies more than 60% of global nickel, pushing the market into surplus.
Government Policies
India is finalising incentives for domestic nickel processing while its state miners hold back on overseas deals.
What could lift prices
- Indonesia's quota cuts and environmental controls could tighten supply.
- Fewer new investments now could limit future supply growth.
What could weigh on prices
- The study group expects the surplus to widen next year.
- Strategic buyers stepping back removes a source of demand for nickel assets.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | Medium | Its state miner has paused a move to secure overseas nickel supply. |
| Indonesia | Medium | Its oversupply is deterring new investment elsewhere. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | Negative | Oversupply is deterring new nickel acquisitions. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian nickel importers: Ample global supply keeps imports available.
- Nickel asset sellers: A strategic buyer has stepped back from the market.
Other ways this could play out
- If Indonesia's supply curbs bite, NMDC could revisit its nickel plans.
- If the surplus widens as forecast, more state buyers could hold off on nickel deals.
Price risks
- Tighter Indonesian quotas could lift prices faster than expected.
- A wider surplus in 2027 would keep prices under pressure.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
India