Peninsula Energy has raised the uranium resource at its Lance project in Wyoming to 59 million pounds, the largest single uranium project in the US. Getting it out of the ground is proving harder, and the company has already withdrawn its 2026 output guidance.
At a glance
- Lance now holds 59.0 million pounds of uranium oxide, up 1.7% from 58.0 million pounds.
- The Ross production area grew 15.6% to 7.4 million pounds after drilling in Mine Unit 4.
- Peninsula still expects 500,000 to 600,000 pounds of output in 2027 after pulling its 2026 forecast in July.
Background
Lance uses in-situ recovery (ISR), which pumps a solution through underground ore to dissolve uranium and brings it to the surface without digging a pit. Peninsula uses a low-pH, acid-based version, the first commercial-scale operation of its kind in the United States. Uranium is sold as U3O8, a concentrate often called yellowcake.
What happened
Peninsula Energy's updated estimate puts the Lance project's resource at 53.9 million tonnes grading 0.050% U3O8, for 59.0 million pounds of contained uranium. That is 1.7% more than the previous 58.0 million pounds. It keeps Lance the largest single uranium project in the US by publicly disclosed, compliant resources.
The gain came from the Ross production area, where drilling in Mine Unit 4 lifted the resource 15.6% to 7.4 million pounds. "The updated Mineral Resource represents a solid outcome," said managing director George Bauk.
Why output is lagging
The bigger question for investors is not the size of the deposit but how fast Peninsula can produce from it. In July, the company withdrew its 2026 guidance of 400,000 to 500,000 pounds. Its wellfields were ramping up more slowly than expected, and solution flow rates were lower than planned.
The causes are technical. Gas building up in parts of the wellfield took longer than expected to resolve, and the company is still fine-tuning its wellfield chemistry. Most of the problems sit in Mine Units 1 and 3, with some chemistry work also needed in Mine Unit 4.
What it means
Most of Lance's pounds are still in the least certain category, with 41.7 million pounds classed as inferred. More drilling at Ross strengthens the near-term mine plan, but the market will judge Peninsula on pounds produced.
The company has time and money to fix the ramp-up. It held US$47.1 million in cash in mid-July after a US$56 million funding package, and it has kept its 2027 target of 500,000 to 600,000 pounds. For US utilities that want domestic uranium, Lance is a test of whether acid-based ISR can work at scale in Wyoming.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. A 1.7% larger resource does not change near-term uranium supply. Lance's slow ramp-up keeps US output lower than planned, but the volumes are small next to global supply.
What to watch
- Quarterly production updates showing whether flow rates at Mine Units 1 and 3 have recovered.
- Progress on wellfield chemistry in Mine Unit 4, where the resource just grew.
- Whether Peninsula keeps its 2027 target of 500,000 to 600,000 pounds.
For information only, not investment advice.
Uranium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2024-12: Peninsula resumes uranium resin production at Lance.
- 2025-09: Dried yellowcake production begins.
- 2026-07: Peninsula withdraws its 2026 guidance of 400,000 to 500,000 pounds.
- 2026-09-28: Updated resource lifts Lance to 59.0 million pounds of U3O8.
Supply Drivers
Lance's resource grew to 59.0 million pounds, but most of it is still in the inferred category.
Mining Production
Slow wellfield ramp-up led Peninsula to withdraw 2026 guidance of 400,000 to 500,000 pounds of uranium.
What could lift prices
- Slower US ramp-ups like Lance keep new domestic uranium supply behind plan.
- Utilities seeking US-sourced uranium have few large domestic projects to choose from.
What could weigh on prices
- A larger resource adds to the long-term pipeline of US uranium supply.
- If Peninsula fixes its flow rates, output could rise quickly toward the 2027 target.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | Medium | Lance is the country's largest single uranium project by disclosed resources. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Fuel Cycle | Neutral | A bigger resource helps long-term supply, but near-term US output remains behind plan. |
Who gains, who loses
- Peninsula Energy: A larger Ross resource strengthens its near-term mine plan while it fixes the ramp-up.
- US utilities seeking domestic uranium: Lance's slow ramp-up delays a source of American-produced uranium.
Other ways this could play out
- If flow rates recover, Peninsula could reinstate guidance and meet its 2027 target.
- If the low-pH ISR problems persist, the company may need more capital or a slower plan.
Price risks
- A lower uranium price would strain Peninsula's cash while output stays below plan.
- Further ramp-up delays could push the 2027 target out of reach.
Technical view
Price is trading above both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bullish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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