Russian-origin aluminium made up 99.98% of available stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses at the end of September, as Indian metal all but ran out and total available stocks fell to their lowest since March 2025.
At a glance
- Available LME aluminium stocks fell 6.5% to 226,675 tonnes in September.
- Indian-origin stocks dropped by 12,400 tonnes to just 50 tonnes.
- Many traders avoid Russian metal, even though aluminium made before April 13, 2024, can still be traded.
Background
The London Metal Exchange (LME) is the main global market for industrial metals, and its warehouse stocks show how much metal is readily available. Available, or on-warrant, stocks are those not already earmarked for delivery. Russian aluminium made after April 13, 2024, has been barred from LME warehouses under Western sanctions.
What happened
Russian aluminium's share of available LME stocks rose to almost 100% in September, from 95% in August, exchange data showed on Wednesday, Reuters reported. Available Russian stocks fell by 3,425 tonnes to 226,625 tonnes, but their share still rose because other metal disappeared.
Indian-origin aluminium, the only other material available, dropped by 12,400 tonnes to just 50 tonnes. Total available aluminium fell 6.5% to 226,675 tonnes, the lowest since March 2025.
Why it happened
Conflict in the Middle East is tightening global aluminium supply, and buyers have been drawing down the metal they are willing to take. Many traders have shunned Russian aluminium, even though material produced before April 13, 2024, remains eligible for trading on the LME.
"The quantity that is in there isn't really wanted," StoneX senior metals analyst Natalie Scott-Gray said on a webinar. She said it would take time for stocks to rise, as there are few queues or cancelled warrants for the metal.
What it means
Buyers who avoid Russian metal now have almost nothing to draw on in LME warehouses. That leaves them relying on direct supply deals, where Middle East disruption is already tightening the market.
Other metals moved differently. Chinese copper's share of available LME copper stocks fell to 28% from 44%. Total available copper rose to 131,450 tonnes, as a smaller price gap with the US COMEX market pushed more metal onto the LME. Chinese nickel's share edged down to 69%.
Our read
Outlook: bullish. With almost no acceptable non-Russian metal left in LME warehouses, physical supply looks tight for many buyers. A rise in fresh deliveries would ease that.
What to watch
- Monthly LME data on the origin of aluminium in its warehouses.
- Whether new non-Russian metal is delivered into LME sheds.
- Middle East supply disruptions affecting aluminium shipments.
For information only, not investment advice.
Aluminium price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-17.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2024-04-13: Russian aluminium made after this date is barred from LME warehouses.
- 2026-09-30: Russian metal reaches 99.98% of available LME aluminium stocks.
Supply Drivers
Conflict in the Middle East is tightening global aluminium supply.
Inventory Drivers
Available LME aluminium stocks fell 6.5% to 226,675 tonnes, the lowest since March 2025.
Geopolitical Risks
Middle East conflict and Western sanctions on Russia are shaping which aluminium buyers can use.
What could lift prices
- Available LME stocks are at their lowest since March 2025.
- Buyers who avoid Russian metal have almost no exchange supply to draw on.
What could weigh on prices
- Over 226,000 tonnes of Russian metal can still be delivered if buyers accept it.
- Easing Middle East tension could free up supply.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | High | Its metal now makes up almost all available LME aluminium. |
| India | Medium | Indian-origin stocks in LME warehouses fell to just 50 tonnes. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Aluminium Smelting | Positive | Tight exchange stocks support aluminium prices for producers outside Russia. |
Who gains, who loses
- Non-Russian aluminium producers: Buyers who avoid Russian metal must turn to them.
- Aluminium buyers who avoid Russian metal: They have little exchange supply to fall back on.
Other ways this could play out
- If more non-Russian metal is delivered to the LME, the Russian share could fall quickly.
- If Middle East disruption continues, available stocks could fall further.
Price risks
- Buyers could decide to accept Russian metal, easing the squeeze.
- A drop in demand would reduce pressure on stocks.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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