Silver traded near $60 an ounce on Wednesday and is set to end September almost 9% lower. Softer US inflation data eased fears of an October rate hike, but not enough to lift the metal.
At a glance
- Silver traded around $60.38 an ounce, down from $66.55 a month earlier.
- US core PCE inflation came in at 3.0% for August, below the 3.3% economists expected.
- MCX December silver held near Rs 2.26 lakh per kg, well below its September high of Rs 2.40 lakh.
Background
Silver, like gold, pays no interest, so it tends to fall when interest rates rise and bonds pay more. The US Federal Reserve raised rates in September to fight inflation, and markets have been betting on another hike. The PCE price index is the inflation measure the Fed watches most closely.
What happened
Silver traded around $60.38 an ounce on Wednesday and is on course to end September with a loss of nearly 9%. A month ago it stood at $66.55. The metal fell 4.6% on Monday alone, before steadying.
The pressure came despite friendlier inflation data. The US PCE price index rose 3.4% from a year earlier in August, below the 3.7% economists expected. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, rose 3.0% against forecasts of 3.3%.
Why silver did not bounce
The softer data led traders to cut bets on an October Fed hike. Other figures pointed the other way, though. US economic growth and ADP employment data both came in stronger than expected, keeping the risk of a later hike alive. Chart signals are weak too: silver trades below its 50-day average near $63, its 100-day near $65 and its 200-day near $73.
Part of the PCE slowdown also came from changes in how the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates the index. Both readings remain well above the Fed's 2% target. "Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, which do not generate interest income," said Ponmudi R, chief executive of Enrich Money.
What it means for India
MCX silver for December delivery opened Rs 1,037 higher at Rs 2,26,487 per kg on Wednesday, recovering slightly after Tuesday's 0.93% fall. It is still far below the Rs 2.40 lakh per kg it reached earlier in September.
For buyers of silver jewellery and coins, the month's slide has cut prices sharply. Traders now look to Thursday's US manufacturing survey and Friday's jobs report for the next move.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Silver remains below all its key moving averages and rate-hike risk has not gone away. Weak US jobs data on Friday could change that quickly.
What to watch
- The US ISM manufacturing survey on Thursday and the September payrolls report on Friday.
- Whether silver holds the $60 level, with $55 the next support traders are watching.
- Any shift in Fed officials' comments about an October rate hike.
For information only, not investment advice.
Silver price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-28: Silver falls 4.6% to about $61.34 an ounce as oil and rate-hike bets rise.
- 2026-09-30: US August PCE inflation comes in below forecasts; silver stays near $60.
Inflation
Headline PCE of 3.4% and core PCE of 3.0% came in below forecasts but stay well above the 2% target.
Interest Rates
Traders trimmed bets on an October Fed hike after softer PCE data, but a later hike remains possible.
What could lift prices
- Softer US inflation lowers the odds of an October rate hike.
- A weak payrolls report on Friday could push rate-hike bets and yields lower.
What could weigh on prices
- Silver trades below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Stronger growth and jobs data keep the risk of a later Fed hike alive.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| United States | High | US inflation and jobs data drive expectations for Fed rates, the main pressure on silver. |
| India | Medium | MCX silver is well below its September high, lowering costs for jewellery and coin buyers. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Silver Mining | Negative | A nearly 9% monthly fall cuts the revenue miners earn per ounce. |
| Silver Jewellery & Silverware | Positive | Lower silver prices make jewellery and silverware cheaper for buyers. |
Who gains, who loses
- Silver jewellery and coin buyers in India: MCX prices are well below the Rs 2.40 lakh per kg reached earlier in September.
- Investors who bought near September's highs: They face losses after silver's nearly 9% monthly fall.
Other ways this could play out
- If Friday's payrolls are weak, silver could recover towards its 50-day average near $63.
- If silver breaks below $60, traders see the next support around $55.
Price risks
- A clear signal from the Fed that it will not hike in October would undercut the bearish view.
- A drop in oil prices could ease inflation fears and support precious metals.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
United States
India