World crude steel production slipped 0.2% to 142.4 million tonnes in September, the World Steel Association said. China was flat and the EU fell 5%, while India grew 1.9% to 13.9 million tonnes.
At a glance
- The 70 countries reporting to worldsteel made 142.4 million tonnes of crude steel in September, slightly less than a year earlier.
- India produced 130.0 million tonnes in the first nine months, up 5.6%, while China's output fell 2.9%.
- Germany's output dropped 13.0% and the Middle East's fell 20.4% in September.
Background
Crude steel is the first solid steel made from iron ore or scrap, before it is rolled into products. The World Steel Association (worldsteel) publishes monthly output for 70 countries that make about 98% of the world's steel. Steel output drives demand for iron ore, coking coal and scrap, so these figures are watched by miners and traders.
What happened
World crude steel production was 142.4 million tonnes (Mt) in September, down 0.2% from September 2025, worldsteel said in its monthly report on October 23. Output for the first nine months of 2026 reached 1,367.5 Mt, down 0.7%.
China, which makes about half the world's steel, produced 73.6 Mt in September, up 0.1%. Its January-September output was 724.8 Mt, down 2.9%. Asia and Oceania as a whole produced 104.0 Mt, up 0.7%, and Russia was estimated at 5.5 Mt, up 6.2%.
Where output rose and fell
The European Union produced 10.1 Mt, down 5.0%, and Germany's output fell 13.0% to 2.6 Mt. The Middle East had the steepest regional drop, down 20.4% to 3.6 Mt. Over the first nine months, Middle East output was down 9.2%.
Other regions grew. Africa rose 10.6% to 2.2 Mt and North America rose 3.4% to 9.3 Mt, with the United States estimated at 7.2 Mt, up 4.3%. Viet Nam posted the biggest gain among the top ten producers, up 29.1% to 2.6 Mt. In Asia, Japan produced 6.3 Mt, down 0.6%, while South Korea rose 3.6% to 5.2 Mt.
What it means for India
India, the world's second-largest producer, made 13.9 Mt in September, up 1.9%. Its output for January-September reached 130.0 Mt, up 5.6%, the fastest growth among the top five producers.
Steel Secretary Sandeep Pondrik said on Saturday that India's steel consumption doubled from 77 Mt in 2014-15 to 152 Mt in 2024-25. He expects crude steel capacity to reach 300 Mt by 2030-31 and 400 Mt by 2035-36. That growth would raise India's need for iron ore and coking coal.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. World output was almost flat and China held steady, so the data gives no clear push to iron ore prices.
What to watch
- worldsteel's October output figures, due in about a month.
- Whether China's year-on-year decline in steel output continues into the fourth quarter.
- Progress on India's new steel capacity, measured against the 300 million tonne target for 2030-31.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-11-01.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-10-23: worldsteel publishes September crude steel output.
- 2026-10-24: Steel Secretary Sandeep Pondrik restates India's capacity targets.
Demand Drivers
India's steel consumption doubled in a decade to 152 million tonnes in 2024-25, supporting its output growth.
Mining Production
Rising Indian steel output adds demand for domestic iron ore and imported coking coal.
Global Consumption
World output fell 0.7% in the first nine months, with China down 2.9%, which caps iron ore demand growth.
What could lift prices
- India's output grew 5.6% in the first nine months and its capacity targets point to further growth in iron ore demand.
- China's September output edged up 0.1%, a pause in its year-to-date decline.
What could weigh on prices
- World output fell 0.7% in the first nine months, a weak backdrop for iron ore demand.
- Sharp falls in Germany and the wider EU show steel demand is weak in Europe.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | India grew output 5.6% this year, the fastest among the top five producers. |
| China | Medium | China's output was flat in September but is down 2.9% for the year. |
| Germany | Medium | German output fell 13.0% in September, the steepest drop among the top ten producers. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Steel Manufacturing | Neutral | Global output was almost unchanged, with growth in Asia offsetting falls in Europe and the Middle East. |
| Iron Ore Mining | Neutral | Flat world output gives miners neither a lift nor a fall in demand. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian iron ore miners: India's growing steel output raises demand for their ore.
- German steelmakers: Their output fell 13.0% in September from a year earlier.
Other ways this could play out
- If China's output keeps edging up, iron ore demand could firm in the fourth quarter.
- If Europe's decline deepens, more steel trade could shift towards Asian suppliers.
Price risks
- A sharper fall in Chinese steel output would weigh on iron ore prices more than this month's flat reading.
- India's growth is too small next to China's volume to set world iron ore prices alone.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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