The World Steel Association expects global steel demand to stay flat at 1,722 million tonnes in 2026, a downgrade from April, as China's property slump drags on. India remains the fastest-growing major market, with demand forecast to rise 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes.
At a glance
- Global demand is forecast to grow 1.7% to 1,752 million tonnes in 2027.
- China's demand is expected to fall 2% to 780.1 million tonnes in 2026 and a further 1% in 2027.
- India's demand is forecast to rise another 8% to 186.2 million tonnes in 2027.
Background
The World Steel Association, known as worldsteel, publishes a Short Range Outlook twice a year. Steel demand is closely watched by metals markets because steelmaking is the main use of iron ore. China alone is forecast to use 780.1 million of the world's 1,722 million tonnes of steel this year.
What happened
Worldsteel released its October Short Range Outlook on October 12. It forecasts global steel demand to stay essentially unchanged at 1,722 million tonnes in 2026, then grow 1.7% to 1,752 million tonnes in 2027.
That is weaker than its April outlook, which expected 0.3% growth this year and 2.2% next year. Worldsteel put most of the downgrade on China.
China drags, India leads
China's steel demand is now forecast to fall 2% to 780.1 million tonnes in 2026 and by another 1% in 2027. Its property downturn has persisted, infrastructure spending has not given the support expected, and manufacturing growth has not made up for weak construction.
India remains the fastest-growing major steel market, with demand expected to rise 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes in 2026 and 8% to 186.2 million tonnes in 2027. Worldsteel said infrastructure construction is the main driver, backed by private real estate, manufacturing and renewable energy projects.
Elsewhere
US demand is forecast to rise 2% to 92.7 million tonnes in 2026, helped by data centres and energy infrastructure. Turkey's is expected to grow 2.9% to 40.4 million tonnes. EU steel use is expected to slip 0.3% this year before growing 3.1% in 2027. Demand in the Gulf is expected to fall about 11% in 2026 as conflict delays projects, before rebounding 11.3% in 2027 if conditions normalise.
Outside China, global demand is forecast to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
Our read
Outlook: bearish. Flat global demand and a shrinking Chinese market weigh on iron ore and steel prices, although India's growth offsets part of the weakness.
What to watch
- China's property sector and infrastructure spending.
- Whether India's construction boom keeps demand growing near 8%.
- Security in the Gulf and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-16.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-04: Worldsteel forecasts 0.3% global steel demand growth for 2026.
- 2026-10-12: Worldsteel cuts its 2026 forecast to flat demand of 1,722 million tonnes.
Demand Drivers
Infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing drive India's growth, while China's property slump cuts its demand.
Global Consumption
Global steel use is forecast flat in 2026 and up 1.7% in 2027.
What could lift prices
- India's demand is forecast to grow about 8% a year in 2026 and 2027.
- Demand outside China is expected to accelerate to 4% growth in 2027.
What could weigh on prices
- China's steel demand is forecast to keep falling in 2026 and 2027.
- Worldsteel cut its global forecast from April's outlook.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | It is the fastest-growing major steel market, with demand up 7.9% this year. |
| China | High | Its demand is forecast to fall 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Steel | Neutral | Growth in India and the US is offset by weakness in China. |
| Iron Ore Mining | Negative | Lower Chinese steel demand weighs on iron ore consumption. |
Who gains, who loses
- Indian steelmakers: They face the fastest-growing major market in the world.
- Iron ore exporters to China: Shrinking Chinese steel demand reduces their main market.
Other ways this could play out
- If China's property market stabilises sooner, the global outlook could improve.
- If conflict in the Gulf drags on, the expected 2027 rebound there may not happen.
Price risks
- Further weakness in China would hit iron ore and steel prices.
- Trade tensions and energy disruptions are risks worldsteel flags for the recovery.
Technical view
Price is trading below both its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, a bearish alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
India
China