A European Commission draft would let only five countries keep receiving EU metal scrap from May 2027. India, which applied, was approved for other waste streams but not for ferrous or non-ferrous metals.
At a glance
- Of 24 non-OECD countries that applied to receive EU metal waste, the draft approves just five, all in Europe.
- India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand are among the 19 countries not approved for metal waste.
- Public feedback is open until October 16, and the first list is due to be adopted by November 21.
Background
Under the EU's new waste shipment rules, exports of non-hazardous waste to countries outside the OECD, the club of mostly rich economies, will be banned from May 21, 2027. The only exception is for countries the European Commission lists after they show they can handle a specific waste stream to EU-equivalent standards. Metal scrap falls under these rules.
What happened
The European Commission published a draft list on September 18 of non-OECD countries allowed to receive certain EU waste from May 2027. Thirty-two countries and territories applied, and 24 of them asked to receive ferrous or non-ferrous metal waste. Only five were approved for metal: Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine.
India was approved for several other waste streams in its application, but not for metal waste. Indonesia and Malaysia got the same answer, as did Bangladesh, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia and Vietnam, among others.
Why the Commission said no
The Commission said metal waste needs particular scrutiny. It cited the possible presence of heavy metals and the environmental risks of shredding, smelting and refining. Countries had to show their waste handling protects the environment, climate and health to a standard equivalent to the EU's.
European recyclers reject that reasoning. Recycling Europe says metal scrap is not inherently hazardous and that metals' durability is exactly why they are recycled. It also points to an awkward contrast: the Commission is considering adding two Indian ship-recycling yards to its approved list while refusing India metal scrap. "European metal recyclers are entitled to ask how these two positions can possibly sit together," said Julia Ettinger, the group's secretary general.
What it means for India
If the list is adopted as drafted, Indian buyers would lose European scrap as a source from May 2027. Europe recycles about 100 million tonnes of steel and 6.2 million tonnes of aluminium a year, and exports roughly 20% of what its recyclers produce, according to Recycling Europe.
Nothing is final yet. The Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) is gathering an industry response and plans to approach the embassies of countries left off the list. After the Commission adopts the list, the European Parliament and Council will have two months to object, extendable by two more.
Our read
Outlook: neutral. A ban from 2027 would push European scrap prices down and could raise costs for scrap buyers in Asia, but the list is only a draft. It does not change today's supply of iron ore or steel.
What to watch
- Whether India submits evidence during the consultation, which closes on October 16, to win approval for metal waste.
- Changes to the list when the Commission adopts it, due by November 21, 2026.
- Any separate EU measures on scrap exports, which the Commission says it may consider to secure secondary materials.
For information only, not investment advice.
Iron price in India
metalscost.com India reference price as of 2026-10-03.
Detailed analysis
Timeline
- 2026-09-18: The European Commission publishes its draft list and opens a four-week consultation.
- 2026-10-16: Public consultation on the draft list closes.
- 2026-11-21: Deadline for the Commission to adopt the first list.
- 2027-05-21: Exports of non-hazardous waste to unlisted non-OECD countries are banned.
Supply Drivers
European recyclers produce about 100 million tonnes of recycled steel and 6.2 million tonnes of recycled aluminium a year, exporting around 20%.
Government Policies
The Commission cites heavy metals and the risks of shredding, smelting and refining as reasons to scrutinise metal waste more closely.
Trade Tariffs
From May 21, 2027, EU scrap can go to non-OECD countries only if both the country and the specific waste stream are on the Commission's list.
What could lift prices
- Buyers outside Europe would lose a scrap source, which could push them toward other scrap or primary metal.
- Recyclers left with surplus scrap could cut collection if prices fall too far.
What could weigh on prices
- Scrap that can no longer be exported could pile up in Europe and weigh on local scrap prices.
- The draft may still change after the consultation, limiting its immediate effect.
Country impact
| Country | Impact | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| India | High | India was refused approval for EU metal waste, though it was cleared for other waste streams. |
| Indonesia | Medium | Indonesia was also not approved to receive EU metal waste. |
| Malaysia | Medium | Malaysia was also not approved to receive EU metal waste. |
Industry impact
| Industry | Effect | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Recycling | Negative | European recyclers would lose export outlets for the surplus they cannot sell at home. |
| Aluminium Recycling | Negative | Non-ferrous scrap is covered too, so aluminium scrap would face the same export limits. |
Who gains, who loses
- Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Ukraine: They are the only applicants the draft approves for EU metal waste.
- European metal recyclers: Recycling Europe says closed export markets would mean fewer outlets, lower material values and growing surpluses.
Other ways this could play out
- If India shows equivalent standards during the consultation, it could be added for metal waste in the final list.
- If the list is adopted unchanged, European scrap flows would shift toward the five approved countries from 2027.
Price risks
- A final list that keeps India off could lift scrap costs for Indian buyers from 2027.
- Separate EU curbs on scrap exports would tighten the squeeze on European recyclers further.
Technical view
Price is mixed relative to its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, showing no clear trend alignment.
Computed from metalscost.com's own stored price history.
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